The global airline industry on Monday nearly doubled its forecast for losses this year to $9 billion and warned that the economic problems would continue for some time.

The forecast by the International Air Transport Association, the industry's largest trade group, was slightly better than the loss last year. But it was significantly worse that the association's projections in March that estimated a loss of $4.7 billion for 2009.

The group also said it expected revenue across the industry to fall 15 percent, to $448 billion this year - a much steeper decline than after the 9/11 terror attacks in the United States.

"There is no modern precedent for today's economic meltdown. The ground has shifted," Giovanni Bisignani, the association's director general, said Monday in a speech at the association's annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. "Our industry has been shaken. Our future depends on a drastic reshaping by partners, governments and industry."

Many airlines have grappled with declining passenger numbers and freight transport - often an important line of business for airlines, which were hurt by the global economic slowdown.

Sales of first- and business-class tickets, in particular, have slumped as passengers have switched to economy class, depriving many airlines of a major source of revenue that is unlikely to return soon.

"Whether this crisis is long or short, the world is changing," Mr. Bisignani said. "It will not be business as usual in the postcrisis world."

Airlines around the world responded recently with cost saving measures, including shelving investment plans, parking planes and reducing salaries and the number of flights.

For passengers, the industry's troubles have been a mixed blessing.

Many routes are being flown less frequently, and some airlines, especially those in the United States, have resorted to cutting in-flight services or adding fees for things like luggage or pillows.

Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to post the largest losses - $3.3 billion - as Japan remains mired in recession and the formerly thriving economies of China and India cool, the association said.

North American airlines are forecast to have a combined loss of $1 billion this year. That would be a significant improvement over the $5.1 billion loss in 2008, when soaring fuel prices hit many airlines there especially hard. European airlines are expected to lose $1.8 billion.

Unlike those in North America and Europe, Asian carriers generally have not reduced in-flight services. Analysts say they believe travelers in the Asia-Pacific region are unlikely to see their comfort impaired or face new costs for extras, despite the steep losses expected by airlines.

In Asia, most of the costs are in staff and fuel, said Gary Pinge, an analyst for Macquarie in Hong Kong.

"Cutting back on in-flight service saves very little, and these airlines have to be very careful about preserving their brand image," Mr. Pinge said. "They have to make sure that they remain the airline of choice for premium travelers once that part of the market revives."

On Monday, Japan Airlines, Asia's largest by revenue, said it planned to cut capacity on international routes by 10 percent this business year, and state-owned Air India said it was considering delaying planes on order from Boeing, Reuters reported from the association's meeting.

The Finnish carrier Finnair is increasing salary cuts in a move to rein in costs, it said last week.

By contrast, the Australian airline Qantas said it did not plan to add to its already-announced flight reductions, showing that some carriers now believe they have adjusted enough to the changed environment. There are also some signs that the decline in passenger and cargo volumes may have stabilized.

"Many airlines now have a pretty good handle on capacities: they have scaled back flights and volumes enough by now to have adjusted to the changed circumstances, and will probably not have to do much more now," Mr. Pinge said.

The transport association expects cargo demand to fall 17 percent this year and passenger demand to drop 8 percent, to 2.06 billion travelers.

The global industry's projected $9 billion loss is a slight improvement over the $10.4 billion loss in 2008, when fuel bills climbed to $165 billion as oil prices soared. This year, the association expects airline fuel bills to fall back to $106 billion, but Mr. Bisignani warned that oil prices could be pushed up again as the global economy began to recover.

By BETTINA WASSENER
Source:The New York Times